UFC Paris: Ciryl "Bon Gamin" Gane vs. Tai "Bam Bam" Tuivasa Write Up
Fight Analysis Write Up + Prediction
This weekend’s main event features a heavyweight bout between the division’s #1 contender Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane vs. #3 ranked Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa. This will be the first time the UFC has hosted an event in Paris. Former interim heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane is looking to get back in the win column in his backyard after losing to current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou at UFC 270. On the opposition, Tai Tuivasa is on a five-fight win streak, with all these wins coming by knockout. A win over Ciryl Gane will most definitely help Tuivasa’s case to get a shot at the heavyweight title. In this article, I will be analyzing both fighters and what will be their best paths to victory as well as how I see this fight playing out along with my prediction at the end. Before I proceed, I will go over the tale of the tape for the contest. Ciryl Gane will come in with a two-inch height advantage at 6’4” and a 6-inch reach advantage, which will impact the direction of the fight. Both fighters switch stances from time to time, but Gane primarily fights southpaw while Tuivasa fights orthodox more often than not. As I discuss in every southpaw vs. orthodox bout, outside foot position will be paramount during the striking exchanges. This fight will be a classic power vs. technique style of fighting.
Tai "Bam Bam" Tuivasa is one of the heaviest hitters in the division. His record attests to 15 wins in his professional career, with 14 of those being (T) KO's Tuivasa likes to get his opponents out of there as quickly as possible. This is no surprise, as his average fight time is only 6 minutes in 31 seconds, the 6th shortest fight time. Tai Tuisava likes to keep the fight on the feet where he is best, whether in the pocket, trading shots with his opponent, or in the clinch, where he has his opponent up against the fence and is reigning down on him with powerful elbows. To pair with his heavy hands, Tuisava has shown that he has a great chin and can withstand his opponent's best shots standing toe to toe with them in the pocket. At distance, Tai has a powerful low calf kick which hinders his opponent's movement making it easier for him to close the distance. Tai Tuivasa's gameplan for this fight won't be a surprise as he said in his interview, "If I dink him, I'll sink him" it usually does not take Tai too many strikes to put his opponent lights out, which is why he is such a dangerous matchup for any opponent as you have to fight perfectly against him while he only has to land one powerful shot to get his hand raised. On the attack, Tuivasa does an excellent job mixing up his boxing, going to the body as well, not only head hunting. The more he goes to the body, the more the head becomes liable to damage. Tai Tuivasa has surprisingly underrated footwork and athleticism for someone of his stature, which makes him even more of a threat to his opponents. The ground is not Tuivasa's strong suit, as he never shoots for takedowns against his opponents. His BJJ is not great, either. Tai has been subbed once in the UFC when he fought an opponent who forced the direction of the fight to be on the mat in Sergei Spivac. However, I will say that he does make a conscious effort to get back to his feet efficiently when he is off his back, in addition to not being easy to keep down as opposed to just entirely giving up on the position. As far as a path to victory for "Bam Bam," it will come as no surprise. Since winning a decision or subbing Gane is very unlikely, Tuivasa will need to come out of the gate guns blazing, ready to bang like usual with his power advantage. The further the fight goes, the more it plays into his opponent's hands. Tai Tuivasa will need to look to get Ciryl Gane out of there the minute the bell rings to get his hand raised. In the striking exchanges, Tai Tuivasa will need to make it a brawl and avoid a technical approach, as he won't be able to win that way. Tuivasa should look to walk his opponent down and close the distance, even if it means taking a shot in the process. Tai trusts his chin to hold up, so the pocket exchanges will be just what he is looking for. It would be in "Bam Bam's" best interest to attack the base of his opponent with his strong low kicks as a means to slow his opponent down making takedowns harder to come by. Being aggressive in the early rounds will be crucial for Tai Tuivasa as he does not want to play the long game with someone with a clear cardio advantage. In this bout, Tai Tuivasa will have a clear path to victory; however, it will undoubtedly be a tough task. This is without a doubt the most important fight of his career as a win over someone like Ciryl Gane would give him a shot to earn championship gold.
Ciryl "Bon Gamin" Gane will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss to current champion Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 upon surprisingly being outwrestled to a decision defeat vs. the most powerful puncher in the division. Ciryl Gane is unlike any other fighter in his weight class. A 6 foot 4 250 pounder who moves like a middleweight is something we have never seen before. It is extremely rare to find someone that possesses the physical attributes along with damn near perfect technique of a fighter. Ciryl describes the "Bon Gamin" fighting style as "footwork, managing distance, touch and never get touched" all of these attributes are what he is most known for. In the striking department, Ciryl Gane is very light on his feet, with a low guard to disguise his attack, and he can effortlessly switch stances, being just as effective from southpaw as he is from orthodox. Gane has good head movement with precise feints making him very hard to hit. Ciryl has the best footwork in the division, which makes him great at entering the pocket to land a shot and then exiting unharmed. Gane has a great jab as a way to keep his opponents at bay. In addition to his jab, Ciryl is a great kickboxer making him a swiss army knife on the feet with a wide variety of attacks. Ciryl Gane is just as talented in the clinch with some of the best elbows and knees the division has to offer. Patient in his attack, Gane likes to control the center of the octagon with a very technical approach. The one knock on Gane's almost flawless game is that he often turns his back as a means to escape danger and his defense tends to fall apart in the pocket in longer exchanges. Against a power puncher like Tai Tuivasa, Ciryl Gane should try to avoid turning his back at all costs. Gane does a good job of mixing in takedowns with reactive double legs after he feints strikes. Ciryl is still effective if he has you against the fence and cannot take you down because of how good his clinch attack is. Ciryl Gane has the advantage on the ground, as I do not even foresee his opponent looking to get the fight there. "Bon Gamin" has two submissions under his belt in his UFC career, one coming by a heel hook and an arm triangle. This was to his detriment in his most recent fight, as going for a heel hook on Francis inevitably put him on his back, giving up the top position and costing him the fight. However, even if Tai Tuivasa ends up on top for whatever reason during this fight, I believe that will still play into the hands of Ciryl Gane. Aside from that one lapse of judgment, Ciryl Gane is a brilliant fighter and will not let his opponent dictate how he decides to take the direction of the fight. Gane has a solid chin and was able to avoid getting hurt by some of the division's hardest-hitting fighters, such as Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis, and Francis Ngannou. He has also gone the distance three times in main event 5-round fights, which shows how solid his cardio is. As far as paths to victory, I think Ciryl Gane has plenty in his fight. I favor him on the ground and on the feet. I can see him subbing his opponent, wearing him down and frusturating him with elusive strikes inevitably resulting in a T(KO), or even simply just outpointing Tai Tuivasa and winning on the scorecards. Ciryl Gane needs to avoid the firefight in the pocket, which he has been able to do in every one of his fights.
Ciryl Gane comes in at around a 6/1 favorite which does not surprise me as I believe he will with this fight handily. Although he is riding an impressive win streak, I don’t think Tai Tuivasa has enough in his arsenal to defeat Ciryl Gane in front of his home crowd, who is one of the most polished fighters on the roster. Aside from power, I believe Gane is better everywhere and will ultimately be too much for Tuivasa to handle. As long as he avoids trading shots in the early rounds, Gane will get his hand raised. As I mentioned earlier, the longer this fight plays out, the more it will favor Ciryl Gane as he has the cardio and output to go a full 25 minutes, while I cannot say the same about Tai Tuivasa. As much as I am counting Tai Tuivasa out, it is MMA, and anything can happen, especially when you can put someone’s lights out with a single punch like Tai. I feel that Gane is smart enough to fight how he usually does with the “Bon Gamin” fighting style to avoid harm. I see this fight playing out in a multitude of ways; I can see Gane winning by stoppage, whether that’s from a submission on the ground, a T(KO) because of the sheer volume of strikes, or winning a decisive decision on the judges score cards. I see Ciryl overwhelming Tai with an influx of strikes mixed with takedown attempts making Tuivasa drain his gas tank. As far as a prediction, I see Ciryl Gane winning on the scorecards as I believe Tai Tuivasa is durable enough to not get finished; having said that, I also think stopping “Bam Bam” inside the distance is more than a possibility.